The Big One
9th May 2011
So its the big one today United v Chelsea.
I’m looking forward to this one, why because to be honest I think anything can happen and usually does.
Any way how do we attack these games as punters?
United have the best home record in the league and Chelsea have the second best away record.
However United have not lost at home all season in fact they have won 16 of their 17 matches at home.
Chelsea though are the form side winning 7 of their last 8 games.
Their scoring records are very similar as well so it is proving very difficult to separate them.
So where to place our money then?
Over/Under 2.5 goals again nothing jumps out so I’m going to have to dig a little deeper.
So looking at the stats hopefully we can find a pattern somewhere.
I get most of my information form soccerstats.com and h2hstats.com as these are free and great resources.
United generally do better at home against Chelsea but its not consistent enough to back with any confidence.
Scorelines don’t really shed any light either the the last 6 games at Old Trafford have finished 1-2,3-0,2-0,1-1,1-0,1-3.
To be honest I’m struggling here generally I would say leave this one alone and just enjoy it.
But with all this analyse I feel I should put something up here and I have managed to find one pattern but it doesn’t always happen in these games.
Both teams score late goals and with so much at stake we could see this happen.
My gut also says this is going to be an over 2.5 goals game, I know I should have hard solid stats behind any pick but I fancy this one.
Chelsea are picking up points and scoring, despite United being solid at home this is a must win for Chelsea so I can see them scoring.
Also watch out for a Berbatov goal I know Hernandez and Rooney have been doing the business lately but Berbatov has scored 17 at home this season.
One last one, look at the bookings market, seems a bit of an obvious one but if previous games are to go by plus the importance we could see a few cards.
It would appear the best on offer is over 60 booking points for 2.1 from Blue Sq/888 Sport its tempting but I’d prefer that for 50 points so look around.
So I wish I could give you a conclusive answer but these games are always tricky.
My moneys going on the Over 2.5 goals or both teams to score depending on price and I’m going to lay the First goal 0-10 minutes.
We don’t often see early goals in these games even if they do start at a 100 mph.
Any way enjoy the game,
Until next time
So the footie season is starting to draw to a conclusion but before we all disappear for our summer hols lets watch all the ups and downs to come.
Teams are making those late pushes for the extra points to win the league, get promoted or save themselves from the dreaded relegation.
As exciting as this can be for the neutral it can make life difficult from a punting point of view.
When your back is against the wall it would appear teams can turn over almost any other side regardless of form.
So with teams needing points and those that have nothing to play for surely it should make for easy betting. Not really because most people will be aware of these facts and therefore prices should reflect that.
Even those dead rubber games aren’t worth getting involved most will be played out to draws but going on last seasons evidence all value in the draw will be wiped out.
So where can we profit?
First and probably the best one is bookings market, under 3.5 points. With nothing riding on these games and players thoughts turning to their beach wear, there wont be as many bookings as normal.
The other option is the under 10.5 corners market I have noticed a slight drop in the amount of corners in some of these dead rubber games.
So start looking into these markets very soon and be careful backing teams on form at this time of year it can be as unpredictable as the first few weeks of the season.