My Saturday morning started by researching the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (formerly the Swinton) writes Dave Dickinson. One of our aims is competitive betting in handicaps, so one look at Page 73 of the Racing Post on Saturday and my face must have looked like something purchased from ‘Smug Handicappers Are Us’.
In one of the bookmakers adverts for the race there were ten 12/1 co- favourites from the 20 runners and only one horse was quoted at longer than 20/1! “Boss impressed” – Ed.
Now I am sure it was a marketing ploy by the Magic Sign but days like these don’t come by in the handicapping world that often. So, a mental note to self, keep page 73 in good nick and remember to buy a picture frame for the office wall next week.
In the event punters latched on to Tom Segal’s Pricewise selection, Red Merlin, and he won very tidily by a long looking two and a half lengths. I felt the winning margin was worth five pounds and using Petit Robin and Conquisto as my markers, I have raised the winner eight pounds to 143.
Not the closest of finishes sadly, but there were two pieces of good news. Firstly, it was a closer finish than last year’s renewal (then again so was the Grand National, the London Marathon and probably the Paris-Dakar rally). Secondly, I should save a few pounds on that picture frame as I can’t afford one big enough to include a photo of the finish!!!
QUEEN COMES HOME FASTER THAN THE REST
As I watched Homecoming QUEEN stroll HOME in last Sunday’s Qipco 1000 Guineas at Newmarket by the longest winning margin in the race since 1859 my immediate reaction was, “what the hell am I going to do with that?” exclaims Dominic Gardiner-Hill.
She was having her 14th career start and was the most experienced and apparently most exposed runner in the contest. She had a pre-race rating of 106 which would have failed to get her into the first three in any of the previous ten renewals of the race and went off a relatively unconsidered 25-1 shot – and yet she bolted in by nine lengths!
The first point to make is that a number of the more fancied fillies blatantly failed to run their race. The O’Brien first string Maybe (ten lengths behind in third) cannot have run to her pre-race mark of 116, whilst other fancied contenders such as Lightening Pearl (111), Moonstone Magic (106), Discourse (109) and Lyric of Light (112) were probably caught out either by the ground or the half hour delay caused by the fatal injury to Gray Pearl – or a combination of both.
The key to the race appears to lie with Lily’s Angel (seventh) and Laugh Out Loud (eighth). I have Richard Fahey’s filly reproducing the 98 she ran when third in the Nell Gwyn, suggesting that the Channon filly has stepped up a couple of pounds from her pre-race 96 in finishing a short head behind. Building up through the field, this means that sixth placed Alla Speranza has run to 99, just 2lb off her pre-race rating of 101 – all neat enough under the circumstances!
Given the ground I have called the nine lengths winning distance 16lbs which results in Homecoming Queen running to a mark of 120 – the best winning performance in the last ten years (bettering Finsceal Beo’s 119 in 2007) and on a par with Cape Verdi’s 120 performance in the 1998 renewal.
It does however mean that in running to 104 and 102, runner-up Starscope and third placed Maybe have posted the lowest rated performances to fill those positions in a very long time – certainly within the previous ten years. Maids Causeway (108 when second in 2005), Vista Bella (107 when third in 2005) and Nasheej (107 when third in 2006) had previously held that “distinction”.
Do I believe Homecoming Queen’s performance? She is certainly a tough filly who has an engine but perhaps it is significant that only she and the runner-up of the first six home had had a previous outing this season, whilst both my benchmarks for the race (Lily’s Angel and Laugh Out Loud) had also enjoyed a pipe opener. Having had a long talk with Turf Club handicapper Garry O’Gorman we agreed we had to give her credit for the performance in the short term and see what the rest of the season brings.
MCCAIN AGAIN
The Chester Cup proved to be a race to remember for Donald McCain, who trained the first two home, though few would argue the real fairy tale would have come about if the pair had finished the other way round. The runner-up Overturn was attempting to follow up his win in the race the previous year off joint top weight and a 7lbs. higher mark explains Stephen Hindle.
After setting a good pace and stringing the field out all over the Roodeye on the final circuit, it looked as if Overturn could well overcome his welter burden, but stable-companion Ile de Re eventually wore him down. Both the winner and second had been running over hurdles, Ile de Re had been beaten off a mark of 124 at Sandown in March, while Overturn of course, had finished second in the Champion Hurdle a few days later, earning the lofty rating of 166.
The task of conceding 13lbs to Ile de Re on the Flat proved too much for Overturn with Ile de Re returning to the sort of form which saw him placed in Listed company in France. As is usually the case with such a prestigious and valuable handicap, I wanted to take a positive view of the form. As the first two pulled five lengths clear of Gulf of Naples, a very progressive 4 year old due to race off a 7lbs higher mark in the future, I could have gone much higher with the front pair.
However I felt the good pace and testing ground were large contributing factors in the field finishing so well strung out, so I didn’t want to go overboard. Ile de Re was running off a mark of 93, and I felt anything less than 101 would be over kind considering the runner-up was running off 106 and the third was due to go up 7lbs.
I raised Overturn by 6lbs to 112, calling the length and three quarters a standard 2lbs. Gulf of Naples didn’t quite run to his new rating of 108 from his win at Ripon, but I felt it was a decent run all the same and left his future mark unchanged.
Due to the soft ground the race was started by flag and what seemed a good draw for the previously progressive Shubaat turned into a poor one when he missed the break, and he was always behind. The early jostling didn’t do fourth-placed Eternal Heart any favours either. He was beaten almost twenty lengths but considering the fact he likes to race up with the pace it was by no means a poor effort.
The Group 3 Ormonde Stakes suffered from a poor turnout and was made less interesting with the withdrawal of last year’s Great Voltigeur winner and Breeders’ Cup Turf runner-up Sea Moon.
Only four went to post and one of those was a previously unraced gelding. The two that dominated the betting were last year’s Irish Derby third Memphis Tennessee, and the St Leger runner-up Brown Panther. Unfortunately, Brown Panther disappointed badly, trailing home a well-beaten last, and Memphis Tennessee was left with a fairly simple task, not needing to run to his 117 rating.
Memphis Tennessee doesn’t carry the sort of hype that many trained at Ballydoyle do, but he’s a colt with a lot of ability and is a reliable individual who has earned his mark from good placed runs in last year’s English and Irish Derbys.
Written by on May 16th, 2012. Have Your Say!. 
The hype and the subsequent performance might not have been of Frankel proportions but Camelot justified his position as joint top two year old of 2011 and pleased every headline writer in the land when landing the Qipco 2000 Guineas in thrilling style at Newmarket on Saturday writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.
Sticky ground and the fact that the field split into three groups for most of the race doesn’t really help in terms of feeling 100% confident about the figures I have put on the race but I have gone with 121 for the winner (up 2lbs from his 2 year old mark). This leads to 120 for the runner up French Fifteen (up 5lbs from his pre-race rating) and 116 for the third placed Hermival (also up 5lbs).
This places Camelot at the lower end of recent Guineas winning performances with only Refuse To Bend (116 in 2003), Footstepsinthesand (116 in 2005) and Cockney Rebel (120 in 2007) being rated lower in the last ten years. However George Washington (2006) and Henrythenavigator (2008) are rated on a par and they didn’t do too badly subsequently.
I fully expect Aidan O’Brien’s son of Montjeu to go onwards and upwards from here. He made up a deal of ground from the rear and will almost certainly be seen to better effect over further. He will take a world of beating in the Derby and I suspect this is the first and last time that I, as mile handicapper, will get the chance to assess him.
Second place French Fifteen (120) deserves credit as his figure is the joint best (with New Approach in 2008) performance by a runner up in the race for the last ten years, whilst Hermival’s 116 places him on a par with other third placed colts Redback (2002), Azamour (2004) and Native Khan last year.
With hindsight I suspect I might have overreacted a little to Trumpet Major’s victory in a weak looking Craven and I believe he performed to his Dewhurst level of 114 on Saturday in finishing fourth. It would have been possible to rate the race a couple of pounds higher through his pre race rating of 116 from the Craven but I am mindful of the apparent improvement shown by his stable mate Coup De Ville (fifth and up 9lbs to 114) and Ptolemaic (seventh and up 13lbs to 109) and believe their proximity acts as a limiting factor to the form.
Interestingly both 5th and 7th raced in the group of four on the far rail which also contained Hermival and I have a sneaking suspicion that they had an advantage of sorts so we will see if they can reproduce these figures in future.
Being made to look something of a fool every now and then COMES with the territory as an official handicapper and whilst I was enjoying Camelot, Godolphin’s Farhh was inflicting one of those moments on me in the Thirsk Hunt Cup. He raced off a mark of 100 and won by an easy 6 lengths at 5/4 favourite in what was supposed to be one of the most competitive mile handicaps of the season so far.
When these situations occur I always go back through the winner’s previous form to check if there is anything I could or should have done differently. My conscience is clear on this one as I had put him up 10lbs for winning at Newmarket last October by 2.5 lengths and this was just a case of a lightly raced improver who had progressed further through the winter. A rise of 14lbs to 114 will end his days in handicaps and it will be interesting to see how far he can go in Pattern Races.
BEST EVER ON THE ALL WEATHER
The decision to switch Ascot’s abandoned card on Wednesday to Kempton paid dividends with two of the best winning performances EVER seen on British all weather tracks.
Roger Varian’s Sri Putra took on some of the best in Europe last year and he enjoyed the drop in class when taking the Listed Paradise Stakes by a nose from Saamidd. In reproducing his 2011 WTRR figure of 115 he put up the joint third best performance ever on the all weather, bettered only by Kirklees (116 in 2009) and Echo Of Light (116 in 2006).
Forty minutes later that had become the joint fourth best ever performance on a British AW track as the ex Mark Johnston stayer Colour Vision came from last to first, when smashing the course record in the Group 3 Blue Square Levy Board Sagaro Stakes explains Stephen Hindle.
Colour Vision had some pretty useful form last season, which culminated in a third behind Fame And Glory in the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day at Ascot, however this was a step up on his first start for Saeed Bin Suroor. The ultra consistent Red Cadeaux sets a good standard and despite suspicions that Colour Vision may be flattered slightly due to the fact that he sat well off the very fast pace set by Electrolyser, I felt happiest with a mark of 116 which puts him above his beaten rivals here and on a par with other top stayers such as Opinion Poll who finished upsides him in the Doncaster Cup last year.
The only other rating I changed was Barbican’s who I dropped 1lb back to 109 as he has now run below his best in two starts since winning a Listed event at Kempton in good style back in November. The Ascot Gold Cup could well be on the agenda for Colour Vision and on this evidence he would certainly have place claims at least if he could transfer his polytrack form back to the turf.
Red Cadeaux reportedly has another crack at the Melbourne Cup on his timetable, but in the short term could turn out in the Yorkshire Cup.
TOP WORK BY THE BHA RACING DEPARTMENT
The hard work put in by the BHA Racing Department in rearranging Ascot’s flooded off fixture to Kempton saved what turned out to be an above average renewal of the the Blue Square Ascot Pavilion Stakes says Stewart Copeland.
It looked a strong race beforehand as the average winning rating of the race over the last decade has been 106 and three of the field had already surpassed that level beforehand.
Indeed those three fought out the finish with the admirable Gusto trained by Richard Hannon claiming his third Listed success this year and his fourth in total.
The race itself was a somewhat messy affair as a modest early gallop meant a position close to the pace was probably crucial. Gusto was well positioned throughout and despite being headed a furlong out by Bannock, he dug deep and rallied in fine style, coming home just under a length clear of that rival.
Rated 110 going into the race, Gusto’s defeat of the 109 rated Bannock at level weights is worth 111 thus giving a minor adjustment to his rating as I believe Bannock replicated his fine effort of 109 in the European Free Handicap.
However it is worth highlighting the run of the third, Burwaaz, given that little went right for him on the day. Too keen early off the modest pace, he then suffered trouble in running in the straight, before finishing strongly into third.
It was an even more meritorious performance when you consider that the bit slipped through his mouth which hardly helped his cause.
Burwaaz was rated 109 after some excellent efforts in Pattern Races as a two year old. Although his performance at Kempton was only 104, he looks sure to be capable of 109 or better later in the season. As for Gusto he is reportedly being aimed at the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. As he has already shown winning form at 7 furlongs this season, it seems a logical target to aim him at.
Written by on May 16th, 2012. Have Your Say!.
The hype and the subsequent performance might not have been of Frankel proportions but Camelot justified his position as joint top two year old of 2011 and pleased every headline writer in the land when landing the Qipco 2000 Guineas in thrilling style at Newmarket on Saturday writes Dominic Gardiner-Hill.
Sticky ground and the fact that the field split into three groups for most of the race doesn’t really help in terms of feeling 100% confident about the figures I have put on the race but I have gone with 121 for the winner (up 2lbs from his 2 year old mark). This leads to 120 for the runner up French Fifteen (up 5lbs from his pre-race rating) and 116 for the third placed Hermival (also up 5lbs).
This places Camelot at the lower end of recent Guineas winning performances with only Refuse To Bend (116 in 2003), Footstepsinthesand (116 in 2005) and Cockney Rebel (120 in 2007) being rated lower in the last ten years. However George Washington (2006) and Henrythenavigator (2008) are rated on a par and they didn’t do too badly subsequently.
I fully expect Aidan O’Brien’s son of Montjeu to go onwards and upwards from here. He made up a deal of ground from the rear and will almost certainly be seen to better effect over further. He will take a world of beating in the Derby and I suspect this is the first and last time that I, as mile handicapper, will get the chance to assess him.
Second place French Fifteen (120) deserves credit as his figure is the joint best (with New Approach in 2008) performance by a runner up in the race for the last ten years, whilst Hermival’s 116 places him on a par with other third placed colts Redback (2002), Azamour (2004) and Native Khan last year.
With hindsight I suspect I might have overreacted a little to Trumpet Major’s victory in a weak looking Craven and I believe he performed to his Dewhurst level of 114 on Saturday in finishing fourth. It would have been possible to rate the race a couple of pounds higher through his pre race rating of 116 from the Craven but I am mindful of the apparent improvement shown by his stable mate Coup De Ville (fifth and up 9lbs to 114) and Ptolemaic (seventh and up 13lbs to 109) and believe their proximity acts as a limiting factor to the form.
Interestingly both 5th and 7th raced in the group of four on the far rail which also contained Hermival and I have a sneaking suspicion that they had an advantage of sorts so we will see if they can reproduce these figures in future.
Being made to look something of a fool every now and then COMES with the territory as an official handicapper and whilst I was enjoying Camelot, Godolphin’s Farhh was inflicting one of those moments on me in the Thirsk Hunt Cup. He raced off a mark of 100 and won by an easy 6 lengths at 5/4 favourite in what was supposed to be one of the most competitive mile handicaps of the season so far.
When these situations occur I always go back through the winner’s previous form to check if there is anything I could or should have done differently. My conscience is clear on this one as I had put him up 10lbs for winning at Newmarket last October by 2.5 lengths and this was just a case of a lightly raced improver who had progressed further through the winter. A rise of 14lbs to 114 will end his days in handicaps and it will be interesting to see how far he can go in Pattern Races.
BEST EVER ON THE ALL WEATHER
The decision to switch Ascot’s abandoned card on Wednesday to Kempton paid dividends with two of the best winning performances EVER seen on British all weather tracks.
Roger Varian’s Sri Putra took on some of the best in Europe last year and he enjoyed the drop in class when taking the Listed Paradise Stakes by a nose from Saamidd. In reproducing his 2011 WTRR figure of 115 he put up the joint third best performance ever on the all weather, bettered only by Kirklees (116 in 2009) and Echo Of Light (116 in 2006).
Forty minutes later that had become the joint fourth best ever performance on a British AW track as the ex Mark Johnston stayer Colour Vision came from last to first, when smashing the course record in the Group 3 Blue Square Levy Board Sagaro Stakes explains Stephen Hindle.
Colour Vision had some pretty useful form last season, which culminated in a third behind Fame And Glory in the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day at Ascot, however this was a step up on his first start for Saeed Bin Suroor. The ultra consistent Red Cadeaux sets a good standard and despite suspicions that Colour Vision may be flattered slightly due to the fact that he sat well off the very fast pace set by Electrolyser, I felt happiest with a mark of 116 which puts him above his beaten rivals here and on a par with other top stayers such as Opinion Poll who finished upsides him in the Doncaster Cup last year.
The only other rating I changed was Barbican’s who I dropped 1lb back to 109 as he has now run below his best in two starts since winning a Listed event at Kempton in good style back in November. The Ascot Gold Cup could well be on the agenda for Colour Vision and on this evidence he would certainly have place claims at least if he could transfer his polytrack form back to the turf.
Red Cadeaux reportedly has another crack at the Melbourne Cup on his timetable, but in the short term could turn out in the Yorkshire Cup.
TOP WORK BY THE BHA RACING DEPARTMENT
The hard work put in by the BHA Racing Department in rearranging Ascot’s flooded off fixture to Kempton saved what turned out to be an above average renewal of the the Blue Square Ascot Pavilion Stakes says Stewart Copeland.
It looked a strong race beforehand as the average winning rating of the race over the last decade has been 106 and three of the field had already surpassed that level beforehand.
Indeed those three fought out the finish with the admirable Gusto trained by Richard Hannon claiming his third Listed success this year and his fourth in total.
The race itself was a somewhat messy affair as a modest early gallop meant a position close to the pace was probably crucial. Gusto was well positioned throughout and despite being headed a furlong out by Bannock, he dug deep and rallied in fine style, coming home just under a length clear of that rival.
Rated 110 going into the race, Gusto’s defeat of the 109 rated Bannock at level weights is worth 111 thus giving a minor adjustment to his rating as I believe Bannock replicated his fine effort of 109 in the European Free Handicap.
However it is worth highlighting the run of the third, Burwaaz, given that little went right for him on the day. Too keen early off the modest pace, he then suffered trouble in running in the straight, before finishing strongly into third.
It was an even more meritorious performance when you consider that the bit slipped through his mouth which hardly helped his cause.
Burwaaz was rated 109 after some excellent efforts in Pattern Races as a two year old. Although his performance at Kempton was only 104, he looks sure to be capable of 109 or better later in the season. As for Gusto he is reportedly being aimed at the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. As he has already shown winning form at 7 furlongs this season, it seems a logical target to aim him at.
Written by on May 9th, 2012. Have Your Say!.
With its proximity to the Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown festivals, Sandown’s Celebration Chase has tended to suffer from a touch of ‘After the Lord Mayor’s Show’ syndrome. Not this year! Writes John de Moraville.
Saturday’s Grade 2 showdown, inaugurated in 2001 after Cheltenham’s Queen Mother Champion Chase was a victim of the foot-and-mouth crisis, produced a star of its own in Sanctuaire, a six-YEAR-OLD novice having only his third start over fences.
He was a talented but temperamental 150-rated hurdler whose victories included the Scottish Champion and the Fred Winter.
Sanctuaire, who had pulled hard in the past and given trouble at the start, seemingly relishes his new front-running chase tactics. Unchallenged winner of his two previous outings, he again blasted off in front and, jumping from fence to fence, had his far more experienced rivals on the rack by half-way.
Never in danger of defeat, Sanctuaire hammered Victor Chandler Chase winner Somersby (166) by 17 lengths with Dan Breen (148) finishing a creditable third. While Somersby and the majority of Saturday’s field failed to give their true running, a line through Dan Breen, who had also run to 148 in winning a course and distance novice chase (subsequently disqualified) on similar going last season, gives Sanctuaire a chase rating of 167.
That mark – just 2lb below brilliant Arkle hero Sprinter Sacre – may well flatter him and is sure to provoke a heated debate at next week’s Anglo-Irish Classifications meeting. But one thing is certain, on a front-runner’s track like Sandown, Sanctuaire is an extremely potent force. Unsurprisingly, he is due to return to the Surrey circuit in December for the Tingle Creek.
LASS VEGA
Most of us knew she had it in her, and at last Quevega was given an opportunity to post a 160+ performance, writes Martin Greenwood. There has never been any doubt that Quevega is a mare with tremendous talent, but usually she faces more or less straightforward tasks on the figures, especially in the mares race at Cheltenham, and given she receives the 7lb mares allowance in open company, it has been difficult to justify anything other than marks in the high 150s over the last few years.
In winning her third straight Ladbrokes.Com World Series Hurdle at a very wet Punchestown last week, Quevega finally broke through the 160 barrier with a convincing five and a half-length victory over Cheltenham World Hurdle runner-up and another ‘uber’mare, Voler La Vedette, with Mourad another four and a half lengths further back in third. Both mares entered the closing stages ‘tanking’ along but Quevega soon put the contest to bed, and recorded her sixth consecutive win in the process. Quevega beat the 160-rated Mourad by just over a length in 2011, but her 2012 ten length beating of the same horse means a career best figure of 163 for the mare.
The obvious question is would Quevega manage to beat Big Buck’s? In my opinion, the match will probably never happen. Ruby Walsh is far too clever to put two of his best mounts in the same race together! With Quevega’s allowance added to her new rating it would be a 174 to 170 clash in favour of Big Buck’s on my ratings. There is no doubt that Quevega is probably capable of better if given the opportunity to prove it, but I still think that comment applies to Big Buck’s as well! It would be a fantastic race to saviour if it ever materialises. And the result? I think Big Buck’s would emerge the winner.
HEAVY GROUND FORM
Life as a Handicapper can be tricky enough as it is but when the weather intervenes in the way that is has over the last week or so then it can become particularly difficult, says Dominic Gardiner-Hill.
I must have had half a dozen people come up to me over the course of Sandown’s two day meeting last Friday and Saturday asking, “How do you guys work things out when the ground is like this?” The answer is to try and be sensible, realise that these races are being run in exceptional conditions where the ability to act in the ground is probably as important (if not more) as handicapping and try not to overreact.
A classic example of this was the Poker at Bet365.Com Handicap at Sandown on Saturday. The race cut up to just four runners with the final distances being ½ a length, nineteen lengths and thirty five lengths – being beaten so far, the third and the fourth give no guide to the level of the race so I realistically only had the first two to work with.
The runner up Sam Sharp had scored off 82 last May but had struggled subsequently and was racing off 83 on Saturday – although only beaten half a length in a £12,500 handicap I have left him on that mark of 83 and raised the winner Weapon of Choice by just a pound to a new mark of 90. This represents a career high for Stuart Kittow’s gelding and it will be interesting to see if he can reproduce, or better it, back on a faster surface in a more competitive race – only time will tell.
The same can be said for John Berry’s Silken Thoughts who ran away with the Casino at Bet365.Com Flat v Jump Jockeys Handicap off a mark of 77. Progressive towards the back end of last season when winning two of her last three races, the filly was always travelling well in the mud and only needed to be pushed out to land the race by four lengths. Given her profile and the manner of her success I would normally have called her value for a five length victory on better ground and put her up 10lb but on this occasion I have just put her up the eight to 85 and left both the runner up and the third on the same marks they ran off.
My best quality race of the week over a mile took place twenty four hours earlier at the Esher venue when David O’Meara’s mud lover Penitent landed the Group 2 Bet365 Mile. The second bottom rated horse on 108 going into the race he stayed on dourly up the hill to see off Earl of Sefton winner Questioning by a length and three quarters with eight lengths and more back to the other four runners. Again the suspicion is that his victory owed more to his ability to keep galloping in the ground but he is now two from two since joining O’Meara and, until subsequent form proves otherwise, I have to give him credit for the performance. I have left Questioning on his pre-race 114 and moved Penitent to a career high 116 – once again it will be interesting to see if that figure can be reproduced on better ground in the summer.
It is now almost a YEAR since Frankel confirmed himself a superstar with his blistering 2000 Guineas victory – still one of the most visually stunning performances I have ever witnessed and all roads lead to Newmarket on Saturday to see if this year’s crop of three year olds contain any pretenders to his crown.
At this stage the Irish look to hold a strong hand ratings wise with the top three rated horses in the race – Racing Post Trophy winner and joint top rated juvenile of 2011 Camelot (O’Brien) leading the way on 119 by a couple of pounds from stable companion Power and the Jim Bolger trained Dewhurst winner Parish Hall on 117.
Let’s hope the rain goes away and the best horse on the day wins!
ANOTHER BIG WIN FOR AN ELEVEN YEAR OLD.
“You never give the older horses a chance in the big handicaps”, is just another hackneyed old phrase that we hear all the time. After the results of the three big staying handicap chases of the last three Saturdays, perhaps we might hear it a little less in the future, hopes Phil Smith.
At Sandown, Tidal Bay became the third eleven year old to win a big handicap following the successes of Neptune Collonges and Merigo at Aintree and Ayr. Neptune Collonges started the season on 168 and won the John Smith’s Grand National off 157, Merigo began 2011-12 on 141 and won the Coral Scottish Grand National off 134.
Graham Wylie’s veteran began the season on 166 and after finishing second in the Argento Cotswold Chase getting weight from Midnight Chase, my colleague Stephen Hindle dropped him 9lbs. to 157. This was a brave but correct decision. He then finished last of five in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury and I dropped him a further 3lbs. to 154.
Following a respectable run when badly hampered behind Big Buck’s at Liverpool over hurdles, Tidal Bay was set to carry top weight of 11st.12lbs. on Saturday. As a result he has become the highest winning weight carrier in the Bet365 Gold Cup and all of its previous incarnations since The Dikler carried 11st.13lbs to victory in 1974.
So when was the last time three eleven year olds won our three premier end of season staying handicap chases in the same season? The answer is it has never happened! The Bet 365 Gold Cup (Whitbread) was introduced in 1957 so it has not happened in 55 renewals.
Feeling pleased with myself I mentioned it to a caller yesterday. “It’s because you have the young horses too high he responded” You just can’t win as a Handicapper.
These three old timers had dropped a total of 30lbs. in five months but all had run well in their last run before their big win. A £10 treble on them would have netted an intrepid follower of these old guys £28,900!
Written by on May 2nd, 2012. Have Your Say!.
There was something for everyone as far as the racing schedule went last week with the new Flat season really kicking into gear at Newmarket and then Newbury, whilst the NH bandwagon rolled north of the border to Ayr for the Scottish Grand National meeting. Both codes are covered in this week’s edition, though the emphasis is rather on the Classics picture.
ON TRIAL
Craven/Greenham week must be one of the most exciting weeks of the year for Flat-racing fans and the last seven days once again saw the re-emergence of a whole host of potential Classic contenders, writes Graeme Smith.
In the spirit of ladies first the Lanwades Stud Nell Gywn Stakes looks a good place to start the rundown. It’s fair to say none of the market leaders for the QIPCO 1000 Guineas lined up and in the event it saw something of a surprise result as one of only two race-fit fillies belied odds of 20/1 as she edged a finish that saw the first five covered by less than a length. With a finish that tight it was always going to be difficult to justify an exalted view of the form, particularly as the winner Esentepe already had ten runs behind her and came with a handicap mark of only 92.
Historical standards for the first five suggested a figure around 101 for Esentepe, whilst a time comparison with the well-run 6f handicap later in the card came out at 100. The latter figure also tied in relatively closely with the pre-race mark of the third, Lily’s Angel, and was the level I plumped for – making Esentepe the joint-lowest-rated Nell Gwyn winner since the turn of the century alongside 2007 scorer Scarlet Runner.
Post-race there are no fewer than five of the beaten fillies who retain a higher mark than Esentepe and runner-up Nayarra even surpassed her level on the day, running to 102 under a 3lb penalty for her Group 1 success last autumn. I’ve left her rating at the 106 she achieved in Milan, feeling a return to 1m will see her in a better light. The inexperienced Starscope probably caught a few eyes too as she did good late work from well back to snatch fourth (ran to 98), and it may be that she does better again having come on the back of just one previous start.
The Dubai Duty Free Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury was a harder race to rate with all bar two of the field failing by a long way to show their form in the testing conditions. The once-raced maiden-winner Moonstone Magic gave Ralph Beckett his third winner in the race with another dominant display.
Both historical standards (for the first two only given none of the others really mattered this year) and a time comparison with Noble Mission’s 92+ performance in the opening maiden – the best relative time on the card by my reckoning – suggested a figure around 108 for Moonstone Magic but I preferred a level 2lb lower, which meant the runner-up Radio Gaga (pre-race 91) moved level with and not above Excelette, who’d beaten her to the runner-up spot in the listed Bosra Sham Stakes at Newmarket last October. It is of course possible that Radio Gaga improved further than the 98 I have credited her with on this first try beyond 6f and the race may need revisiting, but as things stand Moonstone Magic rates as one of the better Fred Darling winners this century.
The beaten favourite Best Terms still stands head and shoulders above this field in terms of ratings, with her 115-performance when winning the Lowther standing up strongly. As far as the 1000 Guineas goes, it seems Best Terms will return to sprinting and Moonstone Magic is by no means sure to be supplemented, with her trainer concerned it may come too soon after two quick runs. In terms of figures, I had Mashoora running to 108 when winning her trial in France, Homecoming Queen ran to 106 when successful at Leopardstown, and her stablemate Maybe – the current ante-post favourite – is rated 116 from her unbeaten juvenile season.
Rather like in the fillies’ division the market leaders for the QIPCO 2000 Guineas also stayed away from last week’s trials and on form so far Camelot still sets the standard at 119.
I dealt with a couple of the colt’s trials and in the first, the Bet At bluesquare.com European Free Handicap, I had Telwaar running no higher than his mark of 100 in swooping from last to first. Both placed horses were wrong at the weights having had their marks reduced since the Free Handicap was published at the end of last year, but runner-up Bannock still came out with the best performance, running to 109.
The Aon Greenham Stakes was probably a stronger trial, even with Top Offer and Tales of Grimm defecting, but Caspar Netscher probably didn’t have to do any more than reproduce the 114-form he’d shown last year to account for the unexposed Boomerang Bob in an unremarkable time. Both ‘Caspar’ and the third-placed Bronterre remain rated 114, whilst Boomerang Bob – who raced only at 5f in a juvenile season that finished in early July – had his increased 7lb to 112.
It could well be that Bronterre puts up a better fight if taking his chance in the Guineas (possibly unsuited by soft ground on Saturday) as his 114-Dewhurst performance was very much endorsed by his stablemate Trumpet Major in the Novae Bloodstock Insurance Craven Stakes, which Dominic Gardiner-Hill dealt with.
Again, this wasn’t straightforward to assess with the 113-rated runner-up clearly not on his game given both his five-length beating and the proximity of others to him, whilst the third-placed Eastern Sun raced alone down the centre of the track. Dom used the sixth-placed Campanology as a guide to the race (rated 90) as that moved Trumpet Major up the Dewhurst result (he’d finished fifth in the race) – crediting him with some improvement – yet kept him just behind the 117-rated winner Parish Hall, coming out alongside the runner-up Power at 116.
Race standards from the last decade give Trumpet Major a chance of reaching the frame in a Guineas with a rating of 116, but he’ll likely have to better that to win the race.
GO ON MAYSON!
Even though understandably the Classic trials took centre stage at last week’s Craven meeting there was some decent sprint action on show, with the 6f listed Connaught Access Flooring Abernant Stakes being the pick of it, writes Stewart Copeland.
The race itself was a somewhat unsatisfactory affair, with a modest early gallop probably compromising the chance of some of those held up, which included the favourite Genki, making his seasonal reappearance and trying to follow up his success of last year. He failed to land a blow from off the pace, but given the race wasn’t run to suit, too much shouldn’t be read into it in my view and he remains on his rating of 114.
The spoils however went to the four-year-old colt, MAYSON, trained by Richard Fahey. Always travelling well up with the pace, Mayson quickened clear in taking style over a furlong out and came home a comfortable three and a half lengths clear from the pacesetting Jimmy Styles.
This represented a marked turnaround in form from their placings in the Cammidge Trophy at Doncaster last time out, and in my view a career-best performance from Mayson. I’ve credited him with an improved rating of 110, which is roughly on par with the average performance we’d expect for an Abernant winner over the past decade.
Mayson’s next port of call is apparently the Group 2 Duke of York Stakes at the Knavesmire next month, and on this effort he’s well worth his place in that field. That race often produces a winning performance in the mid-teens though, and probably explains why recent winners of the Abernant don’t have a great record in it.
In fact we have to GO back to 1995 to find the last horse to complete the Abernant/Duke of York double in the same year. That was no less a horse than the top-class Lake Coniston, who subsequently romped home to an impressive success in the July Cup at Newmarket.
SHINING STAR
The return of Edgardo Sol to hurdles for the Isle of Skye Blended Whisky Scottish Champion Hurdle looked a masterful piece of placing but unfortunately he proved unable to convert his chase improvement back to timber and was just about the first beaten, writes Dave Dickinson.
A strong pace and faster ground than for the main winter handicaps saw returns to form for Local Hero and Clerk’s Choice who ran fine races to fills the places. However, the spoils went to the Alan King-trained Raya Star, already a winner of a slowly-run Ladbroke and third in the Betfair (formerly the Schweppes) at Newbury in February. This truer test held no terrors for him and using the placed horses as benchmarks, he is raised 6lb to a career-high of 149.
Raya Star started his career on the lesser tracks and actually fell on two of his first three hurdle starts, but he now looks a smart prospect for novice chases next season. Note should also be made of the fourth home, Red Merlin, who seemed to travel best but was run out of it on the very long run in, the last having been omitted.
Raya Star is not the first horse to have failed in the County Hurdle following a wide challenge two out and subsequently returned to form – Lifestyle did the same at Aintree on Grand National day.
Written by on Apr 25th, 2012. Have Your Say!.
