The Right Mentality
5th August 2011
Hello everyone,
Admin Gordon here. Simon may have umed and ahhed about writing this post, and I certainly did the same about publishing it. On the face of it the post is all about his selection service.
Ultimately, after editing the link to The Killer Instinct, I took the view that there was enough substance that applies to all punters, and that the mental side of betting is so important, that people should read what Simon has to say.
So read and take note.
Cheers,
Gordon
Hello readers,
I think this is possibly only my second proper rant.
I umed and arghed about whether to do this post but decided I should because ultimately it does highlight things I’ve covered before.
Who wants that magically profit maker that wins every time?
Of course you do, so do I, but it ain’t going to happen and it doesn’t exist.
I run my own lay service over at thekillerinstinct and over the last 6 months its been doing pretty well.
However this month has been a little up and down. We raced along and was making double our monthly average but had our worst ever day that wiped out more than half our bank.
Unfortunately we then followed up with another losing day.
I’ll be honest I don’t like losing days because I try to offer a successful service and want to repay peoples faith in me.
Whether I like them or not these losing days are part and parcel of all gambling and these types of services.
Particular with laying you will often see nice runs of profitable days but can then be hit hard. So for me laying needs to be treated like a long term investment.
After all surely the objective is to make money and if your prepared to give it time you will.
If you don’t you simply wont make money from gambling/betting end of story.
I’m ranting about those that jump ship at the first sign of trouble.
I have seen people unsubscribe from my service within 3 days. 3 days, what were they expecting?
What service or system can be judged on 3 days? These individuals will not make their betting pay because they don’t have the right mentality.
I accept it can be hard to stick with something when it loses heavily in a short time but if they were on board from the start of this month they’d be in +13 points profit still.
I even had another leave the service even though he should have been around +9 points in profit.
If you’ve just started using a service, paper trade first or use small stakes. Most offer a money back guarantees or introductory prices so it should give you a month to just give it a once over.
I’ve stated before in previous posts about how much a service should make and how long you should judge a service and by the way, its not 3 days!!
My service and others will have been through bad spells before and I now we will come out the other side but some individuals will be lost along the way.
Ultimately though this will be their loss as those that keep faith (with the honest and good services of course) will come out the other side better off.
Lets finish on a positive note. The majority of my followers know they need to hang in their and they have.
This pleases me, that all is not lost and there is still a large group of people out there with the right mentality.
Rant over and thanks for listening to me
Simon
Written by on Aug 5th, 2011. Have Your Say!. 
…yes it is, well that’s how the song goes anyway.
What is the magic number?
How much profit do you need to make a month from your betting, systems or services?
A bit of a trick question there you should never need to make a profit.
Wanting to and needing to are two completely separate things so make sure you get that right first.
So realistically how much should you be aiming to achieve?
Well again there’s no conclusive answer as everyone one operates in different ways.
Quite recently I’ve noticed people pushing mirco systems now for those that don’t know micro systems are simple systems that produce just a small number of selections.
They can produce as little as one selection a week or month and their profits are generally smaller but possibly steadier.
Now these may only produce 10 points profit a year but if your equiped with 10 of these then you could be producing a 100+ points a year which is a healthy return.
What about subscriptions services?
Some people suggest not to bother with them but I think they have their place. After all some quite simply make money. The downside normally is the punter at the other end, do they stick to just those selections and advice their given?
Now personally, for me I think if you’ve subscribed to a service 10 points a month on average is a good target.
If the average service ranges from £17-£25 then as long its monthly average is 10 points you should cover your outlay and make a little pocket money as well.
With systems I guess you can afford for the monthly average to be a little lower, mainly due to the fact that normally systems are a one off upfront cost.
I’ve seen systems range from as little as £5 all the way up to £97, personally I wouldn’t purchase anything over £50 unless it was from a trusted source, one of the good guys.
I’d like to see a system produce a minimum of 5 points a month.
Lets say you bought a system for £37 and on average it produced those 5 points a month your looking at 60 points over the course of a year.
So you could cover the cost of that system to even £1 stakes.
Another important factor is, you quite often see people showing results with £100 stakes but the reality is the average punter cant afford to do this.
If you doing back bets you can have quite lengthy losing runs. Laying doesn’t have these longer losing runs but you generally have problems with liability.
The only time you could implement these stakes (unless of course you can afford it) is to use backing systems with a high strike rate and laying ones with a very low liability so bear that in mind.
I know when I started out I wanted to make 30, 40, 50 points profit but it doesn’t happen like that or not until you’ve found those reliable services or systems.
You maybe able to do that but you need to build a portfolio of products that stand the test of time.
As I mentioned in my last post give it 3 months, my own selection service is proof of this.
Last month I had my first ever losing month, it lost 11 points but the previous months had brought in +30, +14 and +24 points profit.
This is an average of +14 points profit a month but I bet a lot of people would have bailed if their first month was last month so just give it a chance.
Good Luck
Simon
Written by on Jun 16th, 2011. 1 Reply Click To Reply.
The Art of Laying
5th June 2011
Hello everyone,
As laying is my forte I thought it was about time I do a brief outline of how to lay vulnerable horses. First off though I’m going to give an example of how a lay bet works just in case you’re not sure.
Example
We want to lay a horse priced at 5/1 and Jeff wants to back it at these odds.
Jeff stakes £5 on the horse to win and I decide to lay that horse to lose. So to calculate our liability we turn 5/1 into decimal and subtract 1 like so, 5-1=4, then we times that by our stake 4*5=20 so £20 is our liability.
So we could lose £20 and Jeff could gain that £20.
So we are effectively risking £20 for a £5 gain and Jeff is risking £5 for a £20 gain.
As you can see that the higher the odds the more likely you are to get winning bets with laying but obviously there is a higher risk to it as well.
Where do we start?
The key to successful laying is to lay as low as you can. Ultimately you need to find short priced horses that don’t justify their price.
So it’s best to start with favourites and a good starting point I find is handicap races.
If starting out look at races with more than 7 runner’s as well, simple maths, the more competition there is the less chance for your selection winning.
Go and take a look at the favourites records for each course. Pop yourself over to the Racing Post site look at the cards for the day and click on favourites. This will then show you favourite’s records in certain types of races. On average a favourite will win 30 – 33% of time so concentrate on those that are below this figure.
Now you’ve short listed some races scrutinise the horses at the top of the market.
All you have to do really is a bit of good old fashioned form reading and find those horses with a lot going against them.
For example the current going is soft but the horse you’re looking at has only ever won on good to firm. Not only that the race is 5f and your horse has been running at 7f.
So you’ve found a horse with a couple of question marks hanging over it now see if you can find 3 more horses in the field that have better form.
There you have a potential lay.
This is a very brief example but there are obviously lots of factors that can play a part.
Is it a new jockey? Maybe the horse is running on AW for the first time. Maybe the horse has only won at right handed courses. Maybe it’s never won carrying a certain amount of weight. Look at its last run, is their jumping suspect and are they running at a course with stiff fences.
In others dig deep and see what you can uncover.
Anyway I hope that gives you some food for thought
Good Luck
Simon
Written by on Jun 6th, 2011. Have Your Say!.
Stick or Twist?
26th May 2011
Hello everyone,
No I’m not referring to blackjack!
What I am referring to is when do you assign a system, tipster or selection process to the scrap heap.
Most of you should now be aware that in order to make profits from gambling or sports trading you have to do it long term.
This long term plan has to be set to everything within your betting portfolio.
Recently I’ve experienced a good example of this within my own portfolio. I run my own lay selections service and I have my own systems that I operate. However it’s been a tough month on all fronts and it does cause you to question whether these are still profitable.
It can be easy to discard systems or tipsters on the back of a poor month and even more so when more than one angle is failing.
I’ve talked in the past about the importance of keeping your head and sometimes walking away to come back fresh another day.
So on with the example
I stumbled across a potential system way back in November and have been using ever since. It concentrates on laying certain runners in the place market.
Now it started off on a flyer and racked up +14.9 points in its first month so as you can imagine I was quite excited. Anyway the next month wasn’t so productive in fact it made a loss so back down to reality.
However it continued to perform and right up until the end of March it had amassed +48 points.
Now after just the second month it had made a loss but I kept the faith and I’ve been rewarded. This month I had considered chopping it from my portfolio however I had to remind myself of this fact and I know the reason why I was being so hasty. Because at the same time my own selections were having a bad spell along with another one of my systems. These bad spells can force you to make rash judgements and it also high lights the importance of results.
If you have previous results that back up how good a tipsters, yours or a systems selections are then it can help you keep a level head knowing that these will come good.
In my personal opinion you have to use 3 months to give yourself a true picture of how something will perform and bear this in mind when looking at those reviews on other websites.
Good Luck
Simon
Written by on May 26th, 2011. Have Your Say!.
The Big One
9th May 2011
Hi All,
So its the big one today United v Chelsea.
I’m looking forward to this one, why because to be honest I think anything can happen and usually does.
Any way how do we attack these games as punters?
United have the best home record in the league and Chelsea have the second best away record.
However United have not lost at home all season in fact they have won 16 of their 17 matches at home.
Chelsea though are the form side winning 7 of their last 8 games.
Their scoring records are very similar as well so it is proving very difficult to separate them.
So where to place our money then?
Over/Under 2.5 goals again nothing jumps out so I’m going to have to dig a little deeper.
So looking at the stats hopefully we can find a pattern somewhere.
I get most of my information form soccerstats.com and h2hstats.com as these are free and great resources.
United generally do better at home against Chelsea but its not consistent enough to back with any confidence.
Scorelines don’t really shed any light either the the last 6 games at Old Trafford have finished 1-2,3-0,2-0,1-1,1-0,1-3.
To be honest I’m struggling here generally I would say leave this one alone and just enjoy it.
But with all this analyse I feel I should put something up here and I have managed to find one pattern but it doesn’t always happen in these games.
Both teams score late goals and with so much at stake we could see this happen.
My gut also says this is going to be an over 2.5 goals game, I know I should have hard solid stats behind any pick but I fancy this one.
Chelsea are picking up points and scoring, despite United being solid at home this is a must win for Chelsea so I can see them scoring.
Also watch out for a Berbatov goal I know Hernandez and Rooney have been doing the business lately but Berbatov has scored 17 at home this season.
One last one, look at the bookings market, seems a bit of an obvious one but if previous games are to go by plus the importance we could see a few cards.
It would appear the best on offer is over 60 booking points for 2.1 from Blue Sq/888 Sport its tempting but I’d prefer that for 50 points so look around.
So I wish I could give you a conclusive answer but these games are always tricky.
My moneys going on the Over 2.5 goals or both teams to score depending on price and I’m going to lay the First goal 0-10 minutes.
We don’t often see early goals in these games even if they do start at a 100 mph.
Any way enjoy the game,
Until next time
Simon
Written by on May 9th, 2011. 1 Reply Click To Reply.
