Full Steam Ahead!
5th July 2011
Hello fellow punters,
In my experience the average punter always looks to back that horses that are steaming in.
Why is that?
First off lets just clarify a steamer and a drifter.
Steamers are horses that see there odds significantly decrease. For example a horse may start the day at 10/1 but come the start of the race their odds may have shortened down to 5/1.
So therefore drifters are the opposite.
Drifters are horses that see there odds significantly increase. For example a horse may start the day at 5/1 but come the start of the race their odds may have lengthened to 10/1.
I must confess I myself have been guilty of backing steamers but overtime I’ve realised this isn’t necessarily a good strategy.
Most gamblers will believe someone knows something or its been tipped well and this can cause people to desperately get what ever value they can. It then snow balls because then more moneys going on as people clamber for that value.
This is not to say you cant back steamers successfully, in fact I’ve follwed tipsters before and noticed that quite often they seem to be tipping up steamers.
I found that this particular tipster wasn’t bad at all actually so I’m sure there’s a way to benefit from backing them.
However I’m going to concentrate on the laying side.
Now for the maths part
Steamers win about 21% of their races where as drifters win about 20%.
So you don’t have to be a genius to work out there’s nothing between them really.
Now if a steamer has pretty much the same chance as a drifter why do you want to back it.
Well personally I don’t but what about laying that steamer.
The principles behind laying steamers is sound there is no real different between them and drifters. As I mentioned earlier people can destroy the value of a horse and it can make it perfect for laying.
Ultimately you can do the reverse and back those drifters.
Obviously you cant really expect to lay every steamer and back ever drifter. However it can and quite often is more profitable to go against the crowd.
A good example of that is I remember I analysed a race not so long ago. I was looking to find lay selections and as usual concentrating on the top of the market.
I identified a horse that was vunerable and I think its forecast was about 5/1.
Now as I said the horse was vulnerable obviously it still had a chance as it was about 5/1 and 2nd or 3rd favourite.
I noticed closer to the off it was actually trading at about 10/1 and remember thinking to myself it could now be a good back bet.
In the end it won and its betfair SP I think was about 18′s. So it shows a horses chances don’t really change unless there’s significant rain but their prices can and you can take advantage.
Its not the first time I’ve highlighted a horse I feel is a good lay and then the price has jumped so far out that it then becomes a value back bet.
To back this theory up I’ve created a little system of my own that I have used myself. Its a a little freebie so subscribe to my blog at anothermillionairequest.blogspot.com and I’ll send you a copy.
Cheers
Simon
Written by on Jul 5th, 2011. 2 Replies Click To Reply. 
A Simple Way to Rate a Race
3rd April 2011
Hello everyone,
We’ve had some inquiries about the rating a race method I mentioned which uses the TS, PRP and OR ratings.
So this a simple method that anyone can use to quickly rate race.
Its no hidden secret but can be very handy and a method I use myself.
So first things first, pop your self over to the Racing Post website.
This method works around the OR, TS and RPR ratings so can still be used even if your havent subscribed to the Racing Post.
OK, so find a race where all horses have OR, TS and RPR all filled. Like the one in the picture.
Once you have done that select all the information from No1 down to the last PRP rating.
Copy all this information into a spreadsheet, this is where all the fun begins.
- Calculate the total of each column
- Divide each total by the number of runners (this will give you an average)
- Now subtract the horses ratings from the average
- Once you have done all 3 add these figures together
You now have a race rated in no time at all.
Lets take a look at the example race above if you’d done the above calculation you’d be left with the following top 3 rated and bottom 2
Polly´s Mark 39
Gertrude Bell 29
Gallic Star 26
On Terms -49
On Khee -53
Now lets look at the result
As you can see our top rated finished 2nd by a head and our second rated won. You could even looking at laying On Terms, On Khee was a NR.
So there you go easy isnt it?
Obviously you could use this in a variety of ways maybe back the top rated, dutch the top selections or lay the worst rated. You can even us it as a starting point and concentrate your form reading on the top 3.
To follow this up I may try and do a short video just to make it easier plus i’ve knocked up a ready made spreadsheet for you.
If you pop over to anothermillionairequest.blogpspot.com and go to downloads you can get a copy of the SimpleRatings spreadsheet.
All you have to do is paste in the information in cell A3 and maybe drag down the formulas for the scores columns if your rating bigger fields.
Good Luck,
Until next time,
Simon
Written by on May 4th, 2011. 2 Replies Click To Reply.
Can you make money from just using free tips and systems?
Hello everyone,
We’ve all seen the sites offering free tips and systems.
Sign up to get the latest money making, betfair bashing, retirement plan for free.
These methods are all used for the same reason, to get you to subscribe to mailing lists. Now there’s nothing wrong with this I’ve collected a lot of free systems over time and subscribed to selections.
Some good and some not so good, but most of the mailing lists I’m still on because there are good guys out there.
Hey, even I’m doing it for those that have popped over to my blog http://anothermillionairequest.blogspot.com will have seen my subscribe box for free tips.
However can these selections/systems make you money or is the only way to pay?
We’ll in truth yes I believe they can, as I’ve said I’ve tried some out.
Now if I’m honest I don’t use any of the free systems I’ve collected at the moment but this isn’t due to them not being any good.
Its actually more to do with my time, after all your betting should always be quality over quantity.
I simply don’t have the time to implement them due to my own selections and projects.
However I do use some free tips, after all they are delivered straight into my mail box.
The downside of these is you may not have the results to back them up plus you may not have set times for them.
What I like about free systems is sometimes they can give you ideas of some for your own research.
One of my favourites which I don’t think is a big secret is the ratings method using the PRP, TS and OR figures from the racing post.
Its a simple method but one I’ve found to be effective and I love these little gems.
Some of the simplest systems can be the most satisfying and best of all helpful people are giving them away for free.
A word of caution though, not everything is a little gem, and just because its free doesn’t mean its a good thing.
At the same time fully paid up services cannot perform as well as claimed.
So start collecting your free systems and selections because remember just because its free doesn’t mean its no good.
However always paper trade. A while back I picked up a lay system and it was so poor I actually thought about backing the selections.
Good Luck on finding those little free gems,
Until next week,
Simon
Written by on Apr 13th, 2011. 2 Replies Click To Reply.
It’s that time of year again.
The sun is starting to shine, spring is in the air and people are starting to dig out their shorts.
So the obvious thing to do is to write about the Grand National so I’m not going to.
The reasons why are one, there are far more knowledgeable people out there than me, and two, everyone and their dog will be writing about it.
What I’m going to focus on is the changing in seasons.
Personally I love the flat season it might just be the nice weather but ultimately I think the shorter distances make for quite exciting races.
However I must admit I generally get the impression most purists prefer the NH season and I must admit I can appreciate some of the quality of the horses you get for the NH.
Anyway how does this affect us as punters?
We’ll firstly you should tread careful at this point in time. As the seasons are crossing over it can be a tricky time to bet on the horses.
With the NH coming to a close some horses maybe starting to tire and are ready for a rest. As for the flat runners, well, some maybe coming off a rest while others are back on the turf after doing a lot of work on the all weather.
Generally I would advise a watching brief for the next couple of weeks.
If you really have to bet my advice would be to take on favourites both backing and laying.
That doesn’t mean take on every favourite that’s running but have a look at whether their form justifies favouritism and unless it’s solid I’d be tempted to take it on.
When backing I try to concentrate on the quality of the horse as opposed to actually form or until most horses have had a few runs.
With regards to laying look for the question marks about a horses form. A good example is just the other day when I was going through some form I noticed a horse that was forecast favourite but it had only run a few times on AW yet it was due to run on turf. That for me is a question mark so is a potential lay depending on other form factors.
So enjoy the sunny weather, just remember to tread carefully and good luck on the national.
Simon
Written by on Apr 6th, 2011. Have Your Say!.
So which one is the best and most profitable way to make money?
Laying
I think a lot of people assume laying is easier and I’m sure a lot of people have given it a try thinking this.
After all it is easier to say a horse will lose than win especially if its a 10-1 shot. Same as its easier to lay the away team at Old Trafford.
The problem you have is the likely liability that comes with these selections.
For example laying that 10/1 shot for £10 creates a liability of £90 so effectively your risking £90 for a £10 profit.
Laying at 10/1 would probably mean you have a nice run and the profit would start to rack up but you’d only need a couple of winners to really impact your betting bank and even wipe all the profit you’ve made.
The key to successful laying is concentrating on selections at shorter prices to limit the liability.
If you can find selections at lower prices who are preferably below the true odds (this is a separate subject i think) then these are the ones to lay.
Pros
- Higher strike rates
- Shorter losing runs
Cons
- Can lose more
Backing
Backing can be more fun for people as we’ve already high lighted laying a 10-1 shot is probably easier but I bet we prefer backing a selection at that price.
Unlike laying which is more of a slow and steady process backing can help to really explode your betting bank on a good day.
However at the same time you could go days without finding a winner. So I guess backing can be a lot more up and down but both processes so be treated on long term performance.
Pros
- Higher returns
- Can be more fun
Cons
- Longer losing runs
So come on then which ones best for profit?
I hate to disappoint you but there’s no answer to this question. Personally I like to use both, laying helps to keep a nice steady flow of profitable bets come in to my accounts. I still have those bad patches when your account takes a hit but I know over the coarse of a month it’ll come good. The backing side helps to top up my account on top of my lays and that’s what works for me.
Some people can ride out those losing streaks that are likely to come with the backing selections knowing backing at the right prices will pay off. Where as others like the steady flow of lays but ultimately I think most use both.
So I guess what I’m saying is we all have to find out whats works for us but at the end of the day though if your selections aren’t up to much and bank management is just as bad I doesn’t matter what type of bet you place.
Cheers
Simon
Written by on Mar 30th, 2011. 2 Replies Click To Reply.
